[enforcer]

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=704183

Quote:

ALBANY -- Traffic on the Thruway is taking a nose dive of historic proportions that, combined with skyrocketing construction costs, is prompting the highway's caretakers to scale back projects in a $2.1 billion capital plan. "There will be more mill-and-fill and less full-depth reconstruction," Thruway Authority Executive Director Michael Fleischer. "Instead of replacing a bridge, we will rehabilitate a bridge. Instead of a 50-year solution, we'll have a 20-year solution." The authority already had turned a corner with its traffic forecasts for this year, anticipating a decline of 0.1 percent. But Chief Financial Officer John Bryan said Wednesday his concern has grown steadily since January, when it first became evident that traffic counts could be heading south even more sharply than previous pessimistic predictions. "This type and size of a problem, I don't think we've ever seen before," he said. January traffic was down 1.4 percent, but Bryan said Thruway officials weren't yet alarmed, because bad winter weather often can reduce the number of drivers on the road. Then March traffic was down 0.4 percent, and that slide raised a special concern, Bryan said, because 90 percent of the decline was in commercial traffic. That sent bad vibes about the overall health of the economy, he said. Official traffic counts aren't yet available for the months since March, but Bryan has been monitoring daily raw numbers for a faster sense of trends. By April, he said, passenger traffic started a "significant" downward trend, and in May, "the alarm bells started ringing. We saw commercial and passenger traffic down just about every day." May's apparent decline was around 2.9 percent, he said, "and we started to get really concerned that these high gas prices were causing a significant structural shift." Finally, "in June, my hopes were really dashed," he said. "That's when we saw a 5 percent drop in traffic." Only February's traffic was up, and that stemmed mainly from the extra Leap Year day, according to Bryan. "We've seen a rather dramatic change this year in our traffic patterns," he said, estimating that overall traffic for the first half of the year is down about 1.5 percent. Through March, Bryan said, toll revenue was about $4.5 million short of budget projections. Meanwhile, Thruway officials say they are making regular adjustments in the schedule for bidding and scope of work for capital projects because of the sluggish toll revenue and rising costs of materials. "We planned for a 30 percent increase in asphalt. It's 60. You plan for a 40 percent increase in steel and it doubles in a month," said Bryan. "It's just one surprise after another." "From 2005 to now, we've lost, probably, close to 40 percent of our purchasing power," he estimated. Just about a year ago, Thruway officials first started eyeing sluggish traffic counts and considering altering their expectations. This April, the authority approved a new round of toll hikes to take effect in January 2009 and January 2010 as part of a plan to cover the cost of repairs to the half-century-old highway system. Also as part of that plan, E-ZPass discounts dropped to 5 percent on June 29. There will be some one-time cash toll hikes at barriers, and the cost of annual commuter permits will rise slightly in 2009 and 2010. The first toll hikes aimed at funding the capital program were passed in 2005. Now, Fleischer said, the authority will keep exploring ways to trim expenses, reduce staff and operate more efficiently. On Wednesday, the Thruway's board of directors approved a one-year contract with Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, a branch of the U.S. Department of Transportation's Research and Innovative Technology Administration, to review Thruway operations and recommend improvements. The maximum cost of the work is to be $250,000. "In the short term, we are tightening our belts, and we will keep our budget in balance," Fleischer said, but it also will be necessary to consider other, more lasting changes to respond to reduced traffic and toll income. "Some of these shifts may be, to some degree, permanent," he said. "We may not go back to 2 percent growth for some period of time."

[FlairFanatic]

Interesting... With the economy slumping, gas at $4.19 and tolls on the rise, I drive a lot less too. For once a "study" that has real results with proven facts.