[enforcer]

http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=7472d1a4-a6fe-476a-99eb-b492e2df0a8a

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We've made it through the first 8 days of August and it's been a real struggle if a) you're on vacation b)you've tried to schedule outdoor activities c) you farm for a living or d) just like to have an occasional dry day! We are 8 days into the month of August and there has been rain on 7 of the 8 days. Only on the first day of the month were we able to escape wet weather. Everyone is asking 'Why?" It's all tied to the jet stream, plain and simple. We've had a persistent trough here in the Northeast not only in August but even back into July. At least in July the trough wasn't to deep (or amplified) and we had some decent weather. Now in August the trough has sharpened up and we have cooled down. With the air aloft being chilly as well it doesn't take much heating down at the ground to get showers and storms to pop up over central New York on any given day. Any signs of change? From time to time we like to gaze out beyond our 7 day forecast to let you know about any upcoming trends but since the computer models have been pretty inconsistent looking out beyond 10 days it's hard to latch on to anything that would point to a chance in the pattern. Let me give you an example. A couple of days ago, we noticed that the GFS and European models were hinting at a ridge and warmer weather in the East come mid month with a trough at least over the Pacific Northwest. It's a couple days later and now there is no ridge in the East or trough in the Pacific Northwest. That's not to say it can't happen, I think it's just a sign of the models having a problem handling the current pattern. If there is one thing that has stayed consistent it's the PNA (Pacific North America pattern) You might remember we look to that index to see if there is going to be a ridge or a trough in the West. Check out what's supposed to happen to the index soon. It's supposed to go negative soon which typically points to a trough out West. Now if we can get the computer models to some around maybe we can become more confident in forecasting a ridge and warmth here in the East. We'll keep you posted. Meanwhile we can curse and complain every time a shower or storm moves overhead or we can try to turn it into a positive. One thing I'm going to try and do this weekend is put down some grass seed on my lawn. (Earlier than I normally would) I might as well take advantage of the wet weather mother nature and the Eastern Trough is giving us.